I think the real trick for both Move and Kinect is to find both games and customers willing to accept the flaws of the systems.
Both Sony and MS have the money to invest in selling this stuff to developers (which is what they did at the last E3 and related events).

MS also has the amateur developer community provided they allow XNA to access the Kinect controller … and that community may surprise us all)

Nintendo’s Wii Fit has proven the exact same thing.
100$ for an extra that is only used by a fitness game ?

Move & Kinect will sell if even only one of their games manages to push the right buttons..
And as geeks we should appreciate the kind of magic required to make a computer recognize someone by merely using a camera as an input.

Indeed, as someone else pointed out earlier, Nintendo had the balance just right and it was there from the release of the console..

I doubt that Kinect nor Move will get much third party love, as not everyone will go out and get those controllers. So those things are pretty much doomed from the start. As a games developer you can’t be guaranteed that everyone will have the controllers, and you don’t want to saddle your potential buyers with a higher price, just because you need to buy the controllers.
So, both are just me-too products, that probably won’t get adopted much.